Jun 17, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 17 00:56:08 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110617 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110617 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110617 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110617 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 170052
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
   U.S..WHILE SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS NOW TURNING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
   THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING BY 12Z FRIDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...VERY WARM
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
   TONIGHT.
   
   INCREASING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING ALOFT...AND SLOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS STORM
   CLUSTERS...WHICH ARE NOW ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   COLORADO/WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA/AND CENTRAL KANSAS...BY
   03-06Z.  HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH
   STRONGER CELLS...AND HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT IN
   OR NEAR STORM CLUSTERS UNTIL THEY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
   
   THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN
   NEBRASKA MAY BE THE LONGEST LIVED OF CURRENT CONVECTION.  IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
   MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.  OR...IT MAY WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION TO ITS EAST AND
   SOUTH...ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   ...PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...
   DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER
   WESTERN TENNESSEE STILL POSES THE RISK FOR A STRONG DOWNBURST...AND
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AN EASTWARD SPREADING OUTFLOW
   THROUGH THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ...PARTS OF CNTRL PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF CNTRL VIRGINIA...
   LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF
   THE ALLEGHENY AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...SUPPORTED BY FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW MIGRATING
   INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/17/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z