Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 171233
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
   STATES...WHILE A SMALLER WAVELENGTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
   MID ATLANTIC STATES.  THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE
   MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
   BEGINS TO AFFECT THE PLAINS STATES.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...FROM
   EASTERN NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO.  THESE CLUSTERS WILL
   PROVIDE A MULTITUDE OF LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS
   RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD MOIST AND
   VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY
   AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR. DESPITE WEAK
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
   DAY...VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING STORMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF MO/IA/IL BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING OVER MO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
   WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY
   AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE EVENING WILL
   PROMOTE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...EASTERN CO...
   NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO BY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
   FROM KS...AS WELL AS PROMOTING UPSLOPE FLOW PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   ELSEWHERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
   WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. 
   RATHER WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..HART.. 06/17/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z