Jun 27, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 01:05:05 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20110627 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110627 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110627 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110627 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 270100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC...
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   MULTI-FACETED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS
   EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS TO IA AND
   NORTHERN/EASTERN MO AND ADJACENT IL. MULTIPLE ONGOING LINEAR
   CLUSTERS/MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   FROM NEAR THE OMAHA VICINITY ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN
   IL...WITH OTHER ADJACENT/ELEVATED STORMS POSING A LARGE HAIL THREAT
   TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THE MAIN SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLULAR/TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
   TO NEAR AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
   MO...WHERE A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN A VOLATILE
   ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER
   WEST...OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WESTERN NEB WITHIN A
   POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   GENERALLY TIED TO A REMNANT MCS/COLD POOL...BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN INCREASINGLY
   ISOLATED BASIS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   GA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF AL/SC.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/27/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z