Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 020100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
   
   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS IA/MN/WI/LS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY STG RIDGING FROM AR
   NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WWD ACROSS SRN CA.  GENTLE HEIGHT
   RISES ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD
   ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEAMPLIFY...REACHING LS AND WI BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NWRN IA SWWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL KS...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER W ACROSS WRN KS AND
   ERN CO.  FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED FARTHER N BY STRONGER BAROCLINICITY
   ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EXPECT COMBINED BAROCLINIC
   ZONE TO REACH CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI...SRN WI...SERN IA...NRN MO AND
   CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  FARTHER E...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER PRECIP AREA IS
   DECELERATING WHILE MOVING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL...AND WILL BECOME
   MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST REGION...
   TWO PRIMARY/SVR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES EVIDENT ATTM...
   1. CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX AND HISTORY OF
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...EVIDENT AT 0030Z S DLH INVOF MN/WI
   BORDER.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI AND
   PORTIONS WRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING SWRN/S-CENTRAL LS.
   2. SRN MN/NRN IA...MUCH OF WHICH IS BEHIND OUTFLOW FROM NRN COMPLEX
   BUT WHICH STILL MAY PRODUCE OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.  MORE
   ISOLATED  SRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW WILL DECELERATE AND GET
   PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER...INDICATING SVR THREAT WITH SRN BAND MAY BE
   MAINTAINED  IT MOVES INTO VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS OF CENTRAL/NRN
   WI.
   
   REF SPC WW 581 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AS WELL AS
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465...FOR MORE DETAILS.
   
   ...LOWER MI...NERN OH...NERN INDIANA...
   NEARLY MERIDIONAL PLUME OF 850-MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER
   ACTIVITY ACROSS INDIANA AND CENTRAL/SWRN LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EWD
   OVERNIGHT WELL E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
   LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
   ROUND OF CONVECTION.  MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
   CORRIDOR...WITH MOST INTENSE/PERSISTENT CELLS PRODUCING HAIL NEAR
   SVR LEVELS.  LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT
   WILL RESTRICT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUBSTANTIALLY.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT TCU/CB OVER FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD
   ACROSS SERN WY..WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FARTHER N ACROSS
   MOST OF ERN WY AND SWRN SD.  ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL
   LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN CO/SERN WY
   REGION...IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME OF NELY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
   UPSLOPE.  THIS AREA LIES BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS
   YIELDING FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 40-45 KT.  ANY
   SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT MAY PRODUCE SVR
   GUSTS OR HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z