Jul 7, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 7 00:55:07 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110707 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110707 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110707 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110707 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 070051
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
   
   VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...PLAINS...
   PRIMARY EVENING/OVERNIGHT SVR THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS ESE ALONG/N OF A SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED ESE INTO CNTRL
   KS.  AMONG CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE...WRF-NSSL4KM SEEMS TO HAVE
   THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING EVENING MCS. 
   ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR A ROBUST NOCTURNAL SVR
   RISK...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP MOIST ESELY
   BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
   ORGANIZATION/FORWARD PROPAGATION OF AN MCS INTO CNTRL/ERN KS
   TONIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ ACCELERATES IN
   RESPONSE TO AN APPARENT MCV OVER THE NEB PNHDL/NERN CO...ENHANCING
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES DOWNSTREAM. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   FARTHER N ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS/WY/MT...ISOLD
   STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE IGNITED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE
   MOVING EWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  THESE STORMS WILL
   PROPAGATE SWD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND BE CAPABLE OF
   ISOLD SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD
   BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND SRN EXTENT.
   
   ...SWRN STATES...
   MCV EVIDENT OVER SERN CA WILL TURN N TONIGHT...AUGMENTING TSTMS
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN NV/SRN SIERRA REGION THIS EVENING.  A COUPLE
   OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE WAKE
   OF THE MCV OVER THE LOWER AZ/SRN CA DESERTS...BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE THAN TUESDAY EVENING.
   THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD
   STORM OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THAT COULD GIVE LOCAL DMGG WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   NRN FRINGES OF A LINEAR MCS HAVE WEAKENED OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
   EVENING.  TAIL-END OF THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STG-SVR
   ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 02-03Z WITH THREATS FOR DMGG WINDS
   AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF 00Z CHH SOUNDING SUGGESTS AS
   TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 70S...ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
   AND/OR MOVE OFF THE COAST.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/07/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z