Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 080045
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2011
   
   VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...MID-SOUTH...
   AN MCV TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY WILL TRAVEL EWD ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT. 
   CONWAY MO PROFILER SUGGESTS AROUND 40 KTS OF FLOW EXISTS IN THE
   4-6KM RANGE ALONG BASE OF THIS SYSTEM.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG
   SRN FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE INDEED SHOWN SOME
   ORGANIZATION.  PRIMARY CONCERN FOR DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL OCCUR
   THROUGH MID-EVENING ALONG PERIPHERY OF MLCAPE AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG
   FROM PARTS OF SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL AND FAR W KY.  SWRN EXTENT OF
   DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IN AR AS AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED
   THIS EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z LZK SOUNDING.  ACTIVITY WILL
   PROBABLY LINGER AS FAR E AS THE LWR OH VLY/MID-SOUTH THROUGH 12Z
   WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLD RISK OF DMGG WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM H5-H7
   LAPSE RATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG OVER
   ERN CO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW KS...OK/NM/TX THIS EVENING. 
   TSTMS READILY FORMED OVER THE HIGHER CO TERRAIN AND ARE IN THE
   PROCESS OF CONGLOMERATING INTO A SMALL MCS OVER SERN CO.  ACTIVITY
   WILL BE EMBEDDED IN ONLY 20-25 KT OF WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT
   AMID WEAK ENELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  THUS...EXPECT THAT HIGHEST
   POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH
   PLAINS THOUGH ABOUT 03Z WITH A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THESE THREATS
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PAC NW MID-LEVEL WAVE
   HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE OF PWATS IN THE 0.75-0.90" RANGE PER GPS
   SENSORS. ISOLD TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM IN ERN ORE ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CELLS WERE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED GIVEN ONLY MODEST THERMAL BUOYANCY.  IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT A ROGUE STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE A SVR WIND GUST OR
   MRGLLY SVR HAILSTONE YET THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN ORE...ID AND SWRN
   MT...BUT THREATS DO NOT JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/08/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z