Jul 10, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 10 00:33:07 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110710 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110710 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110710 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110710 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 100029
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2011
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO CNTRL
   NEB...
   
   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
   CLUSTERS OF CELLS CAPABLE OF WIND AND HAIL PERSIST OVER ERN CO...AND
   WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB DURING THE EVENING. 00Z
   SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AROUND 30-40 KT WHICH WILL
   STEER STORMS EWD WITH TIME. TO THE S...VERY HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED AIR
   EXISTS AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...IT
   WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR NWD WHICH MAY MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   FARTHER N FROM SD INTO MN AND IA...SPLITTING CELLS HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED OVER CNTRL SD WITH HAIL LIKELY. VIS IMAGERY FROM ERN NEB
   NEWD SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. THE MOST LIKELY
   FOCUS FOR INITIATION HERE WOULD BE FROM THE ONGOING CELLS SEWD ALONG
   A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. BUT LOSS OF HEATING MAY
   RESULT IN ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AND HAVE REMOVED MUCH OF
   THE AREA FROM SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z