Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
   
   THE PRIMARY BAND OF FAST ZONAL WESTERLIES REMAINS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
   FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MS/AL/GA.  SEVERAL
   SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AND WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
   MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.
   
   ...ND/SD/MN...
   THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
   EASTWARD TODAY AND INTO MN THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE AT THE
   SURFACE...A RETREATING BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE ND/SD
   BORDER WITH MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
   THROUGH THE DAY AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO MN.  HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH
   BL MOISTURE VALUES ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS ARE SURFACE-BASED.  MODEL SOLUTIONS
   SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND TRACK
   ACROSS MUCH OF MN AS A HAIL/WIND THREAT.  PLEASE REFER TO MCD NUMBER
   1558 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
   
   ...IA/IL...
   A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   AND HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK ASSOCIATED MCV.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL REJUVENATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR NEW STORMS WILL
   FORM NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...MOST 12Z
   MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY IN
   THIS REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. 
   HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
   PROMOTE STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND THE THREAT OF HAIL AND
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST CO/NEB...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF
   CO/WY ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS.  HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E VALUES SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO
   WESTERN NEB AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  IF THIS SCENARIO
   OCCURS...SCATTERED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 07/10/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z