Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141622
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2011
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES INTO NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   CANADA TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH BRUSHING MT
   LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN MT AND
   SWD EXTENDING LEE TROUGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. A WARM FRONT
   STRETCHING FROM THE MT LOW EWD INTO NRN SD/IA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD
   INTO SRN ND/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
   CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING WEST OF THE MT DIVIDE IN 
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND A SPEED MAX IN ID. AS THIS
   FORCING SHIFTS NEWD AND TEMPERATURES WARM...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS SPREAD INTO ERN MT...WHERE BOUNDARY LARGER
   MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER... THOUGH HIGH
   RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A WIND
   PRODUCING MCS OVER ERN MT BY EVENING.
   
   WITHIN MOIST MID/HIGH TROPICAL PLUME FROM NM NEWD INTO SD...AN UPPER
   IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER FAR NERN WY. CURRENT MOTION
   PLACES THIS FEATURE IN NWRN SD BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO WEST
   CENTRAL MN BY 06Z. DESPITE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES...
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ALONG WARM FRONT FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
   FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE IN
   STRONGLY SHEAR/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH A
   TORNADO OR TWO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   PAST FEW NAM RUNS SUGGEST THE MT MCS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS ND
   TONIGHT...THOUGH MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
   MOVE NEWD INTO CANADA...PER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS... GIVEN
   THE WEAKER FORCING AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP IN SD ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED BY LOW LEVEL
   JET...BOUNDARY PRESENCE AND STRONG INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
   A POSSIBLE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS FROM NERN SD/SERN ND NEWD INTO
   WRN MN OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SCATTERED DIURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
   FORM OVER THE CO/WY HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SFC TROUGH. THESE STORMS
   WILL EXIST ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL THREAT.
   
   ...GULF STATES...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT...PW/S AOA
   2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH WINDS/SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
   VERY WEAK...THE VERY MOIST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S MAY YIELD A FEW WET MICROBURSTS.
   
   ..IMY/JIRAK.. 07/14/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z