Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 240543
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
   EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. BY MID-DAY THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES.
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST FROM SE WY
   SEWD INTO SRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z
   SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE MAINLY DUE TO
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...ERN ND AND NW MN...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST
   AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL
   ND NEWD INTO NW MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z
   MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 50 TO
   60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THREAT WITH THE MAGNITUDE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MANY STORMS CAN
   DEVELOP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   MAY SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN OBTAIN ROTATION. THE MODELS ARE IN
   DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGESTING THE SEVERE
   THREAT IN ERN ND AND NW MN IS CONDITIONAL.
   
   ...MID-MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
   WNWLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
   AND OH VALLEY. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM IA AND
   NRN MO ESEWD INTO IL...IND AND OH. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
   TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
   THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENABLE
   THE STRONGER CELLS TO HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/24/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z