Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 301242
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
   
   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS PERIOD AS ELONGATED W-E RIDGE
   OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL STATES BUILDS NWD ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS IN
   WAKE OF FAIRLY STRONG IMPULSE NOW IN ERN SK.  THE SK TROUGH SHOULD
   CONTINUE E/NE TO NRN ONT BY 12Z SUN AS ASSOCIATED LEAD DISTURBANCE
   NOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES ESE TO NEAR LK ERIE.
   
   COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SK TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE UPR
   MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS THROUGH EARLY SUN.  THE WRN PART OF THE FRONT
   LIKELY WILL BECOME STNRY NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER LATER TODAY/TNGT AS
   PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE NRN HI PLNS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
   ENTERING BC FROM THE PACIFIC.
   
   ...UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   ON-GOING WAA STORMS IN ERN ND SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E OR ESE
   INTO MN/NE SD LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO
   VEER AND SHIFT E IN TANDEM WITH SK/MB UPR TROUGH.  WHILE EARLIER
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ND MAY HAVE BEEN ASSISTED BY WEAK LEAD IMPULSE
   NOW IN THE ERN DAKOTAS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD
   BEYOND LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS AND THE LLJ LATER THIS MORNING. 
   THUS...THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY SLIGHTLY
   WEAKEN.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AND IN THE WAKE OF DIFFUSE NW/SE WARM
   FRONT...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /WITH SFC MID-UPR 60S F
   SFC DEW POINTS/ WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY BENEATH EWD
   MOVING EML PLUME.  COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING IN WARM SECTOR
   ...EXPECT 3000-4000 J/KG SBCAPE TO DEVELOP BY AFTN AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT FROM SE ND AND CNTRL/ERN SD INTO MUCH OF MN AND FAR WRN WI.
   
   EML CAP AND THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
   SK/MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL LIMIT
   COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-FORCED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. 
   BUT SETUP SHOULD NEVERTHELESS FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCTD
   SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON NRN FRINGE OF EML FROM NE SD INTO
   CNTRL/NRN MN.
   
   WITH WIND PROFILES FEATURING 20 KT SW TO WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING
   TO 30-40 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...AT
   LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.  THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
   LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT AND/OR
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL/NRN MN AND NW WI...TORNADOES.
   
   THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO TWO OR THREE SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVE. 
   THESE SHOULD MOVE ESE TO SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MN AND WI...AND
   INTO PARTS OF MI THROUGH EARLY SUN.  WHILE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   MAY SUPPORT A SPORADIC RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND...INCREASING CIN AND RELATIVELY MODEST LLJ /DUE TO NEWD
   WITHDRAWAL OF UPR TROUGH INTO ONT/ SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH RISK WILL
   REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 07/30/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z