Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 020600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROMINENT/EXTENSIVE WEST-EAST UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
   UPPER RIDGE...RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES WILL
   PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST/EAST
   COASTS...INCLUDING A SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER NEW
   ENGLAND.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES REGION...
   CURRENT SHORT-TERM INDICATIONS ARE THAT A POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS
   WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI AND THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION
   OF THIS MCS/EARLY DAY STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MESOSCALE
   PROCESSES /COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL MCV/ ALONG WITH A
   SUSTAINED/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP MAINTAIN A QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOWARD LAKE MI/LOWER
   MI AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. 
   
   REGARDLESS...OTHER SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS A MOIST INFLUX/INSTABILITY FEED PERSISTS FROM THE
   WEST-SOUTHWEST...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
   AND/OR ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE EARLY DAY MCS/ASSOCIATED
   CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LAKE MI GENERAL
   VICINITY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WI AND NORTHERN IL/INDIANA AND
   PERHAPS LOWER MI/NORTHERN OH PENDING THE EARLY DAY MCS.
   OVERALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF ONE OR
   MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS/POTENTIAL MCS/S...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERNS.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
   NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IN VICINITY
   OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR A SOUTHEASTWARD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT.
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MODEST ASIDE FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   RELATIVELY COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT /-12 TO -16C AT 500 MB/ AND
   ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL/POTENTIALLY COPIOUS SUB-SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
   WINDS AS WELL.
   
   ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY
   IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...AIDED
   BY SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS-CENTERED UPPER RIDGE...A RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL
   ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. OVERALL...DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE
   OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
   MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A FEW MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
   REGION...A FAVORABLE COLOCATION OF MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT/ADEQUATE PW WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...GULF COAST REGION...
   IN SPITE OF WARM TEMPERATURES/POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...A MOIST/HOT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY YIELD SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS
   CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..GUYER/ROGERS.. 08/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z