Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 060549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2011
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CAROLINAS/VA...
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING CAROLINAS/VA...
   THE NOW EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF LEE/RESULTANT CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED
   TO GRADUALLY FILL/WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG/IMMEDIATELY WEST
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...NEAR/EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS SPINE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...TO THE SOUTH
   OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ANGLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN VA. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION
   AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WEAKENENING/GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS IN THE
   LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL TEND TO REDUCE HODOGRAPH LENGTH /AND
   ESPECIALLY/ CURVATURE /WITH TIME/ COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM/MOIST
   SECTOR.
   
   NONETHELESS...A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP
   LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL
   HEATING...IS SUGGESTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT VIA A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO
   RISK. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL BE ACROSS NC/SOUTHERN VA IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
   THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL
   LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED WHILE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MORE
   MARGINAL/UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE VIA
   LINEAR CLUSTERS/SMALL SCALE BOWS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
   CAROLINAS/PERHAPS SOUTHERN VA WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...FL...
   COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
   FL TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
   EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT A FEW OF THE MORE
   SUSTAINED STORMS/CLUSTERS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE PRIOR TO
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST CONUS TO FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD
   AMID A RIBBON OF STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS
   SCENARIO...ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW/STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT...COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
   WINDS/SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
   MARGINAL/QUITE SPARSE IN NATURE SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO
   NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/06/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z