Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 061628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2011
   
   VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN VA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...DELMARVA TO CAROLINAS...
   
   MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN GA
   WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE TN-NC
   BORDER...CURVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC...AND THEN NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD
   INTO ERN KY BY 07/12Z WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH
   THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY THE END OF THE D1
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE N OF
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NC/SERN VA WILL SERVE TO
   ENHANCE BAROCLINITY...AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT
   TODAY.  THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NWWD THROUGH ERN VA
   OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE LITTLE OR NO
   CAPPING...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   INTO THE 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  THIS
   INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MERIDIONAL FLOW
   ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  AN ISOLATED WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY
   PERSIST INTO WED MORNING POTENTIALLY AS FAR N AS THE DELMARVA AS
   SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PIVOT NWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT.
   
   ...FL...
   
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS IS RAPIDLY
   PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PENINSULA AS OF LATE
   MORNING...AND AWAY FROM STRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PRESENT
   ACROSS NRN PART OF THE STATE.  STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AND
   WHILE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE SWD
   DISPLACEMENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW
   IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST WIND THREAT. 
   THEREFORE...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM AREA.
   
   ..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 09/06/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z