Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 040019
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2011
   
   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC WILL
   FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH THAT IS
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CANADIAN
   PROVINCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST
   AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S...A
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY INDUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
   MODIFIED COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR S FL. ACROSS THE WEST...BROAD HEIGHT
   FALLS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO NOCTURNAL
   THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO
   POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY NATION-WIDE...NO ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..HURLBUT/BROYLES.. 10/04/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z