Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101623
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
   ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   ...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   HYBRID-TYPE SURFACE LOW S OF VLD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
   WWD TODAY BEFORE TURNING SWWD AND MOVING TO OFF THE FL PNHDL COAST
   TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SECONDARY LOW FORMATION IS FORECAST OFF THE
   NERN FL COAST TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG
   COASTAL FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE SC SHELF WATERS.
   
   WWD MOTION OF PRIMARY LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
   AIR INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE MLCAPE MAY
   APPROACH 500-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED TO THE W OF
   INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TORNADO
   POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER N ALONG THE SC COAST...NELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
   LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING
   QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SHELF WATERS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY ATTEMPT TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY
   INLAND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING AT
   LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2246.
   
   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/10/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z