Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 211943
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011
   
   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   THE NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS CONTINUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/21/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011/
   
   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
   TODAY...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
   EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SRN MT AND WY EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
   PANHANDLE...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE
   PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
   
   FARTHER S...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
   OVER SRN OK/NRN TX AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH
   STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   FROM TAKING PLACE BEFORE 12Z/22.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z