Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 081245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS AND THE MID MS VALLEY...
   
   A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL MOVE
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
   WED MORNING.  AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OK INTO
   MO/IL WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS TX/AR.  SCATTERED
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR OF THE LOW FROM OK/TX INTO MUCH OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
   VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...OK/TX/LA...
   A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO
   CENTRAL TX.  THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND
   SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO EASTERN OK/EAST TX. 
   POCKETS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HELP
   DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND INTENSIFY THE STORMS BY EARLY/MID
   AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. 
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
   NORTHEAST...HELPING TO DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   
   ...AR/MO/IL...
   FARTHER NORTH...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL
   BE SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT AS IT TRACKS
   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STL AREA.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
   STORMS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AR INTO
   SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL.  THIS THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
   EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND WHETHER A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS CAN RETURN NORTHWARD.  CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
   RISK IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ..HART/COHEN.. 11/08/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z