Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 090522
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
   EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
   FEATURE WILL BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FORMING
   OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DIVE S/SEWD FROM THE
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
   AS IT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT
   LAKES...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY AND
   CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE MIDWEST...
   ONGOING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM AND BROKEN LINES OF TSTMS FROM SRN IL
   TO WRN LA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTURN/LIMIT THE
   POLEWARD RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E FROM THE WRN GULF. IN
   ADDITION...THE MODIFIED DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS AS SAMPLED BY 00Z LIX
   AND JAN RAOBS WAS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THE
   NET RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASINGLY NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR WITH
   THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES AT 09/12Z WITHIN A DECAYING MCS
   ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH A MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT HERE...VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
   THIS THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...DESPITE MINIMAL ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY...STRONG FORCING INVOF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE COULD YIELD
   SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM 12-16Z.
   
   ..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 11/09/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z