Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130511
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF
   CENTRAL-NRN CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED AND MOSTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVES.  ONE OF THOSE SHORTWAVES -- NOW MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL
   ROCKIES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
   FROM NEB/IA BORDER REGION AT 13/12Z ACROSS LOWER MI AND LH BY
   14/03Z.  ASSOCIATED/DIFFUSE SFC FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS OZARKS REGION AT 14/00Z.  WEAK
   FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MO BY
   14/12Z...WITH FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS OK BY END OF PERIOD. ERN
   LIMB OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN RATHER ILL-DEFINED ACROSS IL/INDIANA
   AND PERHAPS SRN LOWER MI.
   
   MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN BAJA -- IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE/REDEVELOP SEWD ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN
   TURN EWD OVER CENTRAL BAJA AND ADJOINING GULF OF CA DURING
   14/06Z-14/12Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   THIS REGION WILL BE ON NRN FRINGES OF INFLUENCE OF PAC
   CYCLONE...WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FARTHER S ACROSS
   PORTIONS NWRN MEX.  STILL...DURING FIRST 9-12 HOURS OF
   PERIOD...REGIME OF MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL
   CARRY OVER FROM PRIOR PERIOD...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EWD THEN SEWD IN
   STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF NERN FRINGES OF PAC CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND ENOUGH STEEPENING
   OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR BUOYANCY TO REACH INTO ICING
   LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION.
   
   ...OH VALLEY REGION...
   WITHIN SW-NE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND NEAR LOW-LEVEL
   FRONTAL/CONFLUENCE ZONE...EXPECT WEAK BUT MRGLLY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
   RETURN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...INVOF 45-55 KT LLJ.  SFC
   DEW POINTS 50S F AND 850-MB DEW POINTS 8-11 DEG C SHOULD
   CHARACTERIZE MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL ADVECT NEWD...OUT FROM BENEATH
   PRONOUNCED LAYER OF WARM TEMPS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WILL
   REMAIN OVER SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS.  INCREASINGLY MOIST
   PARCELS WITH TIME THEN CAN ASCEND GENTLE ISENTROPIC SLOPES TO
   LFC...REALIZING ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 200-500 J/KG RANGE AFTER 06Z. 
   SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/WEAK TO DRAW AOA 5%
   PROBABILITY LINE ATTM DUE TO PRESENCE OF NOCTURNALLY/DIABATICALLY
   STABILIZED LAYER BENEATH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE PLUMES...AND LACK OF
   MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY/MOISTURE.
   
   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 11/13/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z