Nov 16, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 16 05:58:11 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111116 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20111116 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20111116 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20111116 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 160554
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES AND ERN SEABOARD...
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SCNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE
   MS VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS A LARGE SPATIAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN SEABOARD. A SOMEWHAT NARROW CORRIDOR FOR
   STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF
   A VORTICITY MAX ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
   THAT A BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
   ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN
   AL ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO CAROLINAS.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK CORRIDOR GRADUALLY INCREASE
   MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   THE SLIGHT IS ORIENTED ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD
   BE WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS GA INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED IF A LINEAR
   MCS CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED.
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/16/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z