Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 191955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011
   
   VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.  PREVIOUS FORECAST
   REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING LATER TONIGHT FROM
   ERN OK/NERN TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
   FROM ERN OK/NERN TX INTO PARTS OF AR/SRN MO.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/19/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011/
   
   ...ERN TX/OK ENEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   MORNING SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SWRN KS AND FARTHER W INTO THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN. A SFC LOW WILL RIDE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
   CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
   ADVANCING SEWD/SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY
   LYING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
   RECENTLY HAVING NOSED JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. DESTABILIZATION
   WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL
   POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...WITH AN AXIS OF AT LEAST WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS FAR NEWD AS WRN KY AND SWRN IND BY 12Z
   SUN. WHILE COMPARATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND
   FARTHER SW INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/TX COINCIDENT WITH MAX
   HEATING...FORMIDABLE CAPPING NEAR THE 850 MB-LEVEL PER 12Z FORT
   WORTH AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
   SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN
   THE PRESENCE OF WAA-INDUCED ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
   AFFIRMED BY REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO. A
   STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION
   ROOTED ATOP THE NOCTURNAL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE LACK OF
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE SVR STORM THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS MINIMAL.
   
   ...CA COAST...
   DEEP-LAYER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY DIVING SSEWD ABOUT 400
   MILES OFF THE COAST OF SWRN ORE...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SFC
   LOW. THE SFC LOW WILL DROP SSEWD JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY NEAR
   THE COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST.
   HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
   INSTABILITY REACHING THE COAST OR IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NEAR-SHORE
   WATERS...AND THUS GENERAL THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NOT BEING
   INCLUDED.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z