Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021246
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2011
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
   OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
   PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING AND ENEWD
   EJECTION OF MIDLEVEL LOW FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS BY 03/12Z.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
   DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE
   ARKLATEX INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...THE SEGMENT OVER TX WILL BE MAINTAINED
   AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NWD IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
   WRN TX TONIGHT.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A MODIFIED
   CP AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
   55-65F AND PW VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES.  A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW REGIME WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWWD TODAY ISENTROPICALLY
   ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE.  HOWEVER...CAPPING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
   OBSERVED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   TONIGHT N OF SURFACE FRONT AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
   FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NRN
   MEXICO.  WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z