Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141223
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011
   
   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
   WESTERN STATES...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST CO/EASTERN NM.  THIS IMPULSE WILL TRACK
   QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THU MORNING.  VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
   LIFT FROM PARTS OF TX/OK INTO MO/IA.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
   AND TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY.  THE RESULT IS A RATHER LARGE AREA WITH SOME THREAT OF
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...OK/KS/MO/AR...
   MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER
   WESTERN KS WILL TRACK INTO IA BY THIS EVENING.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
   WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF OK/KS/MO.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
   50S CURRENTLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE KS/OK BORDER.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   WILL HAMPER INSOLATION AND LIMIT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
   DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
   VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE EXPANDED LOW
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH INTO KS/MO WHERE A STRONG/SEVERE
   STORM MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE VERY WEAK CAPE VALUES EXPECTED.
   
   ...TX/OK...
   THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SHIFT AWAY
   FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE AROUND 700MB THAT IS LIKELY
   TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN THE STORMS THAT DO OCCUR ACROSS THIS
   REGION. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
   THIS AREA.  LATE TONIGHT...A REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
   ALONG THE SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. 
   HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELDS BY THAT TIME SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK
   WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.
   
   ..HART/GARNER.. 12/14/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z