Dec 23, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Dec 23 00:58:12 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 230054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC... NRN REMNANT OF QLCS OVER PARTS OF NRN GA HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH PRIMARY HIGH REFLECTIVITY LINE BECOMING CONFINED FROM NEAR MCN SWWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WHILE A 50-60 KT LLJ WILL BE COINCIDENT WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE STRATIFORM REGION EVOLVING NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE DEARTH OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SUGGESTS REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS...A MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. WITH TIME...THE SRN PORTION OF THE QLCS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD. ..GRAMS.. 12/23/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z