Feb 27, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 27 17:32:54 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110227 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110227 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 271730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
   
   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TN/KY AND
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA TO SOUTHERN WV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
   VA/NC/SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
   SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OPENING/ACCELERATING OVER AZ/NM AS OF SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY TO THE NORTHEAST
   STATES/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
   FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH
   SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
   APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT/EARLY DAY CONVECTION. A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   EPISODE IS LIKELY ON MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
   WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   AN ONGOING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...REFERENCE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH
   AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG THE GULF
   COAST...ROBUST NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT /AS AIDED BY 50-70
   KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 1-2 KM/ WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
   TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON MONDAY.
   
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD
   INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
   INCREASINGLY LINEAR/QLCS-TYPE CONVECTION ROUGHLY ATTENDANT TO THE
   EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEARING THE MS
   RIVER VICINITY EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN WITH AN UNFAVORABLE
   CLIMATOLOGY TIME OF DAY /NEAR 12Z/...SURFACE BASED TSTMS SEEM
   PROBABLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/TURBULENT MIXING...AS
   SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH CORRESPONDING
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND EVEN STRONG TORNADO RISK ONGOING AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VIA QLCS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR MODES.
   IN ADDITION...ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDWEST...AN EARLY DAY ELEVATED HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST AS
   WELL.
   
   SUBSEQUENT ADDITIONAL/BACKBUILDING TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPS/QUICKLY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST
   STATES. IN ALL...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/STRONG SPEED
   SHEAR IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH A SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FAST-MOVING/WELL-ORGANIZED
   QUASI-LINEAR/BOWING CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO QUASI-DISCRETE OR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
   SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SOME TORNADOES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/27/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z