SPC AC 170600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIALLY ZONAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON
MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF
BROAD TROUGHING/INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
...LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS...
OWING TO A MODEST WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS VICINITY. AN
ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO
CONTINUE/PERHAPS INCREASE IN VICINITY OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/SHARPENING WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS SCENARIO
GIVEN WEAK FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE/WEAK UPPER HEIGHT RISES. THAT
SAID...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT VIA AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY BRANCH LOW LEVEL
JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE REGIME INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. OWING TO
AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WITH APPRECIABLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
GRADUALLY OCCUR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR/NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR A WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE. AS
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OCCUR/MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR/MOIST AXIS. ONLY MODEST
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH SUNSET/EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE EML/CAP TOWARD THE MO VALLEY COULD BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SOUTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW...A CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED ATOP THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM SECTOR NEAR/EAST
OF THE NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO OK/CENTRAL TX.
WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF LITTLE
OR NO DEEP CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE 12Z/16TH ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS IMPLY SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL TX
DURING THE EARLY EVENING /ECMWF/ AND/OR LATE AT NIGHT /GFS/ IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. BUT GIVEN THAT THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AT THESE
LATITUDES...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE SEEMS QUITE LOW OWING TO THE DEGREE OF THE EML/CAP...EVEN
WITH STRONG HEATING/MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 04/17/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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