Apr 24, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 24 06:02:02 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110424 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110424 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 240600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
   ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
   U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MO VALLEY LATE.  
   
   AS THIS STRONG FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
   CONUS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW
   TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  THIS LOW -- AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT
   PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   PERIOD.
   
   ...NERN TX/SERN OK/SERN KS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER
   MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS...
   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED DAY 2
   /MONDAY APRIL 25/ FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
   MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
   IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE WARM
   FRONT FROM PARTS OF OK/KS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.  AS THE STRONG
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SHIFTS EWD
   ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE DAY...A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
   FORECAST INVOF N TX/OK IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
   CYCLOGENESIS...SHIFTING NEWD INTO MO THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL
   ALLOW A SLOW NWD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL
   MO/SRN IL...WHILE A COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SWEEPS EWD ACROSS ERN
   OK.
   
   WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT HEATING -- AND THUS MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE RISK AREA...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM E TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO AR/SRN
   MO AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND
   THE FRONT SHARPENS...EXPECT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
   ACROSS SWRN MO...ERN OK...AND E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH --
   GIVEN STRONG/FAVORABLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD QUICKLY
   BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  ALONG WITH THREATS FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...TORNADOES
   ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG/DAMAGING.  THESE INTENSE
   STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID
   MS VALLEY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OVERNIGHT INTO
   LINEAR CLUSTERS.  ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE AS
   STORMS SHIFT ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/24/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z