Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150459
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTH FL...
   
   LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY...SWD TO THE FL STRAITS INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD.  WITH LITTLE
   MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ANY TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL BE LIMITED TO
   EXTREME SOUTH FL WHILE A MODIFIED ZONE OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL FORCE A
   NARROW WEDGE OF WEAK INSTABILITY INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NC AND SERN
   VA.  IN BOTH CASES DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
   POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH UPPER TROUGH.  COLD MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
   ENSURE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR REMOVAL OF ANY
   INHIBITION.  ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IT WOULD SEEM
   LIKELY THAT THE STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
   FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR/EAST OF
   SFC LOW OVER NC SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO CONCENTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   THERMALS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  IN BOTH CASES FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW TO WARRANT STRONG
   MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
   APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
   REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
   EXPERIENCE H5 TEMPERATURES LESS THAN MINUS 20C STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD ALLOW WEAK CONVECTION TO FOCUS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND BENEATH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z