Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010549
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN MT THROUGH ND INTO
   NRN MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES WITH A
   SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FORECAST TO EJECT THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
   ENTRENCHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN U.S. WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE NERN STATES CONTINUES OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
   LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS WHILE A COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER EAST A COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH INTO TN AND NC.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   A RELATIVELY NARROW MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN
   WAKE OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW IN ERN MT SEWD
   INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. ELEVATED STORMS WILL
   BE ONGOING FROM ND SEWD THROUGH IA AND MO WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
   LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT
   FOR HAIL AS THEY SHIFT NEWD. WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD
   DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A WARM EML /700 MB TEMPERATURES AOA 10C/.
   THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT
   SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVELY
   REINFORCED WARM FRONT. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS WERE TO FORM...LARGE
   HODOGRAPHS ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FROM ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
   OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   AND NRN PLAINS AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS THEY ENCOUNTER
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE EXPANDED THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA EWD ACROSS ND INTO NWRN MN PRIMARILY FOR A THREAT
   OF LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS. DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS ONLY 15%
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
   
   IT STILL APPEARS SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION IS A LITTLE MORE
   PROBABLE ALONG EWD SURGING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHERE
   DIABATIC WARMING AND DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITHIN UPPER JET
   EXIT REGION MAY ERODE THE CAP. STEEP LAPSE RATES...1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE ALONG MOIST AXIS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /50+ KT/ WOULD
   PROMOTE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   
   ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN
   VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH. CAPE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO
   MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH BASED STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
   DIABATIC WARMING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   CONTRIBUTE TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
   IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...BUT THE STRONGER PULSE AND MULTICELL
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/01/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z