Jun 8, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 8 17:32:03 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110608 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110608 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 081729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN
   U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S.
   FORECAST TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH
   TIME.  ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO
   CROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. WITHIN FAST WLY FLOW -- WITH
   THE FLOW FIELD TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC WITH TIME ACROSS THIS
   AREA AS THE SRN FRINGE OF AN EWD-MOVING ERN CANADA TROUGH AFFECTS
   THIS AREA.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
   IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
   MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
   LITTLE SWD PROGRESS THOUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL LIKELY
   BEGIN A NRN RETREAT ON ITS WRN FRINGE AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY.  THIS FRONT -- FROM THE NORTHEAST
   WWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION -- SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
   PRIMARY AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY ONGOING AS
   WELL.  POCKETS OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE
   MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.  WITH MODERATELY
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLYS ACROSS THIS REGION...POTENTIAL FOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS APPEARS TO EXIST --
   ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.  HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE -- ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.  
   
   WEAKER FLOW ALOFT FARTHER WWD INTO THE MIDWEST SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT
   LESSER SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY FROM THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY ENEWD.  WHILE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   ENTIRE REGION SHOULD DECREASE OVERALL INTO THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LIMITED THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND/NY/PA/NJ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
   
   ...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
   BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...WITH THE MODELS
   FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF THE HIGH PLAINS LEE LOW NEWD INTO THE
   MID MO VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.  THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
   LAYER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED INTO THE AFTERNOON...MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
   A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF THE CAP...AND SUBSEQUENT
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND ERN NEB.  
   
   SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE IS A QUESTION ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO/SRN
   IA/FAR SERN NEB.  HOWEVER...AMPLE CAPE -- AND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS -- SUGGESTS AT LEAST 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
   HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. 
   ATTM...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE PROBABILITY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT
   THIS AREA COULD REQUIRE HIGHER SEVERE PROBS IN LATER OUTLOOKS. 
   OVERNIGHT...HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS EXPANDING
   WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
   
   ...APPALACHIANS...
   WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT
   THIS PERIOD...ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP --
   INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  THOUGH THE FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK UNDER
   THE UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
   POOL DEVELOPMENT -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WITH THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/08/2011
   
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