Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 040600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2011
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   
   ...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER-MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR FROM SD/NORTHERN NEB INTO MN/NORTHERN WI ALONG/AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME SPATIAL/INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   REGARDING THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
   REMNANTS OF THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND/OR THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
   FOCUS ADDITIONAL/RENEWED VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NEB/IA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
   PORTIONS OF KS/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERNS.
   
   FARTHER WEST...OTHER SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A
   POST-FRONTAL MOIST/UPSLOPE REGIME...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS
   SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
   SD/NEB. GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AND VEERING WIND
   PROFILES...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
   POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD OCCUR
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION POTENTIALLY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN
   NEB/NORTHERN KS. IF THIS OCCURS...A DAMAGING WINDS/PERIODIC HAIL
   THREAT COULD CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER
   PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS
   OF THE REGION.
   
   ...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS MORE
   UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/SOUTHERN MN/WI INTO MI...WHILE VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AS WELL /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30 KT
   OR LESS/. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR
   WARRANTED.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
   AN ISOLATED/DIURNALLY ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
   MAINLY DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...AZ...
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSES/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE PERIPHERY
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE UNCERTAIN INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE PERSISTENCE
   OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND POTENTIALLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING
   OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/04/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z