Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 031649
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2011
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   A GENERAL RETREAT OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO CANADA IS
   EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON
   THURSDAY.  SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
   THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW.
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN
   FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER PORTIONS OF MT/ND.  A WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO FORM ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND.  STORMS
   SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ND AND NORTHERN SD DURING THE EVENING.
    THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD ROTATE...WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS.
   
   ...ID/WRN MT...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
   NORTHERN CA.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND AFFECT PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
   OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ORE AND MUCH OF ID.  STRENGTHENING MID
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/AZ WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.  THIS
   PROCESS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
   OF KS AND NORTHERN OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  ASSUMING POCKETS OF
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...THERE IS THE RISK OF
   WET MICROBURSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..HART.. 08/03/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z