Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 061728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN LOWER MI/ OH VALLEY WWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THOUGH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...
   DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY/S OVER THE NRN
   STATES WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND WLY/S TO DRIFT SWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF SIGNIFICANCE INCLUDE ONE
   IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM
   SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY
   EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL
   STRETCH FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SRN NY AREA SWWD THROUGH THE
   OH/MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN LOWER MI...INTO PORTIONS OF OH/TN AND MID MS VALLEYS...
   A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE IN PROGRESS AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI/UPPER PENINSULA OF MI EARLY MORNING. THESE
   STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING...AND
   MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY.
   HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND CONVERGENCE
   ALONG FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW POCKETS OF STORMS
   DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH HEATING...WARM
   SECTOR WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE VALUES
   FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING INTO THE
   25-40 KT RANGE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   MULTICELLS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR CLUSTERS AND EVEN BOWING
   SEGMENTS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ...AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT IN KS/SRN NEB AS LOW LEVEL
   JET STRENGTHENS. ALSO...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   MOVING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AT 35-45 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS FROM WRN SD SEWD INTO KS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
   MOST SUGGESTIVE FOR WIND DAMAGE ...THOUGH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE
   MCS CLUSTERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF KS/NEB...AND SHIFT EWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A CONTINUED WIND THREAT.
   
   ACROSS ND...WEAKER SHEAR INDICATES THE SEVERE THREAT IS A LITTLE
   LOWER...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM.
   
   ...SRN NY/PA SWD INTO DELMARVA REGION...
   PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW/TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH RESULTANT WEAKER
   INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WHERE POCKETS OF HEATING/STRONGER
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND 30-35 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT ON SUNDAY WHERE GREATER
   INSTABILITY IS LIKELY...PORTIONS OF AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A
   SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/06/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z