Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 180600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK TROUGHS INVOF BOTH THE WEST AND
   EAST COASTS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. 
   SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS MOVING REPEATEDLY THROUGH GENERALLY WLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE N CENTRAL STATES ON NRN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE WILL
   CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY FLAT AND SUPPRESSED SWD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE N
   CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY REINFORCING A SECOND/LINGERING FRONT
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THIS
   FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   COMBINE WITH ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE INITIAL STORMS COULD POSE AN
   ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIND SHOULD EVOLVE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING...AS STORMS GROW
   UPSCALE.  PERSISTENT ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MID-LEVEL WNWLYS
   SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WRN
   KS/NEB...SPREADING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO LOWER
   ELEVATIONS.  WHILE DEGREE OF THE WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO NEB/KS
   MAY WARRANT EVENTUAL INCLUSION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITY...WILL
   MAINTAIN ONLY 15% THREAT ATTM AS CAPPING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
   MAY HINDER OVERALL INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXITING THE
   HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING FRONT COMBINED WITH
   LIMITED SHEAR SUGGEST A LOW-END HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
   DEVELOP.  MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS WI...BUT MAY
   ALSO AFFECT MI AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SERN MN/NERN IA/NRN IL DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.  
   
   ...MIDWEST...
   MCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- LIKELY
   INVOF IA/MO INITIALLY...IN ZONE OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
   ESEWD-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
   
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE SUGGEST
   THAT AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN
   EVOLUTION WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING SLIGHT RISK ATTM. 
   HOWEVER...WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY FURTHER INTO
   THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AS ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON STORM INTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT
   NEAR THE FRINGES OF THE RAPIDLY-MOVING MCS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/18/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z