Aug 23, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 23 06:03:29 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110823 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110823 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.		 
   SPC AC 230510
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LOWER MI...NERN IL...NRN
   IND...NWRN OH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IL/MO AND INTO NRN OK BY 00Z.
   SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
   
   ...LOWER MI INTO NERN IL...IND...OH...
   MORNING CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL QUICKLY
   MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
   DAY. FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD
   TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL. SIG HAIL THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE
   RELATIVELY SHORT HODOGRAPH LENGTH...BUT MODERATELY STRONG MEAN WIND
   THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS. 700 MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KT BY EVENING.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
   ELEVATED MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION DRIVEN BY WARM
   ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MARGINAL SHEAR
   MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 
   AFTER THIS ACTIVITY WANES DURING THE LATE MORNING...STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE WITH A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS IN
   PLACE. FORCING WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
   EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. ALSO...MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY TO
   THE NE MAY BACK BUILD SWWD INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL
   THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/23/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z