Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 020555
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   SRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG AND TO THE
   NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI
   WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING
   AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A
   LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
   THE MOIST AXIS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND 30 TO
   40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AS
   STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. A
   LINEAR MODE WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND
   SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NERN NM...THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING CLOSE TO THE HIGH
   TERRAIN IN SE CO AND NE NM WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   STEEPER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE CO AND NERN
   NM AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
   SUGGESTING A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT
   SOMEWHAT.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM 13 TO
   BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE NWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SRN LA
   SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINBANDS SHOULD EXTEND NEWD AND EWD FROM THE STORM
   CENTER ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY IN
   THE MS DELTA REGION SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ENABLE
   STORM ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. A
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION BUT
   THE THREAT COULD DEPEND ON WHETHER DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP. DUE
   TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...INSTABILITY IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING ANY TORNADO THREAT
   MARGINAL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z