Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021701
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA INTO LOWER MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM SRN MB
   INTO SRN ON AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
   SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
   WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A WARM/MOIST AIR FEED AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
   
   TO THE S...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
   GRADUALLY DRIFT NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
   
   ...ERN IA INTO LOWER MI...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM IA INTO SRN
   WI/NRN IL EARLY ON SAT...WITH A 20-30 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND
   FIELDS WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS...WITH
   MULTIPLE EPISODES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK CORRIDOR. THE BACK
   EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SURGES
   EWD SERN WI/NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO CNTRL LOW MI AND NRN
   IND BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WITH BE THE MAIN THREAT...FOLLOWED BY
   HAIL.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE NRN GULF OF
   MEXICO DRIFTING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE LA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
   TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE LOW CENTER WITH
   STRONG S TO SE WINDS BRINGING UPPER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   ASHORE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND
   THERE SHOULD BE A ZONE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES IN
   THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. DEGREE OF TORNADO
   THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE STORM STRENGTHENS OR
   NOT...ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z