Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101737
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN VA INTO SERN PA...MD
   AND DE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS
   FROM OH INTO MS AT 00Z. SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT WILL STRETCH
   FROM THE MIDDLE GULF COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
   WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM VA INTO SC...WITH A WEAK COLD
   FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD LATE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND MD. 
   
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER SRN/CNTRL
   CA...WITH AFTERNOON STORMS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
   PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.
   
   ...VA/PA/MD/DE...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM VA SWD WHERE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
   1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
   F.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
   DAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY ACROSS WRN NC AND VA AS WELL AS
   OVER INTO SRN PA. COOL LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT WITH FAVOR HAIL
   AREA-WIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS WINDS
   FARTHER E BENEATH STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES. IF STORM MODE REMAINS
   CELLULAR...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF
   STORMS CAN PRODUCE ENOUGH OUTFLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATE...DAMAGING
   WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/10/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z