Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 201656
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2011
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHING THE NWRN STATES AND AT 16Z WAS LOCATED 420 MILES W OF
   THE WA/ORE COASTS NEAR 44N/134W.  THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE
   NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...WITHIN THE WRN
   EXTENT OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG AND E OF THE
   ROCKIES.  
   
   ...SERN MT TO WRN/SWRN SD...
   A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SERN MT/NRN WY TO
   WRN/SWRN SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH
   MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION.  ALTHOUGH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CHARGE SEPARATION...OVERALL VERY WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A 10 PERCENT TSTM AREA.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/20/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z