Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 311630
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES
   BAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
   QUASI-STATIONARY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EFFECTIVELY AMPLIFY
   A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY
   EARLY WED. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED INVOF THE OK
   PANHANDLE TUE EVENING ON TRAILING PORTION OF THE PLAINS FRONT.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL BE MEAGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
   INTO THE 40S TUE EVENING/NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
   PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING EWD OVERNIGHT.
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
   LIMITED IN BOTH AMPLITUDE /AOB 250 J PER KG/ AND SPATIAL EXTENT
   /CENTERED OVER NRN KS AND SRN NEB/. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW
   ELEVATED TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME TUE NIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/31/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z