Mar 23, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 23 07:16:55 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110323 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110323 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 230714
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
   FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BLOCKING REMAINING PROMINENT.  FLOW
   SPLITTING AROUND ONE HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
   WILL REMAIN STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH...IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 
   VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A STRONG UPSTREAM JET
   APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THIS TROUGH...INCLUDING YET
   ANOTHER THAT IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MAY
   APPROACH THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL
   ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND THEIR
   POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON BROADER SCALE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...WHICH IN
   TURN ALSO IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF PRECEDING IMPULSES PROGRESSING
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
   ONE SUCH FEATURE MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
   NIGHT...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF YET ANOTHER ACCELERATE THROUGH  A
   CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
   
   MOISTURE RETURN TO ZONES OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
   DOWNSTREAM OF THESE IMPULSES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK
   PLATEAU...PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE
   VALLEY.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO IN THE PRESENCE OF
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER SHEAR...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. 
   HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTIES STILL SEEM TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY
   ASCERTAIN AND DELINEATE EVEN LOWER END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/23/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z