SPC AC 230714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BLOCKING REMAINING PROMINENT. FLOW
SPLITTING AROUND ONE HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH...IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A STRONG UPSTREAM JET
APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THIS TROUGH...INCLUDING YET
ANOTHER THAT IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MAY
APPROACH THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND THEIR
POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON BROADER SCALE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...WHICH IN
TURN ALSO IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF PRECEDING IMPULSES PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
ONE SUCH FEATURE MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF YET ANOTHER ACCELERATE THROUGH A
CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
MOISTURE RETURN TO ZONES OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE IMPULSES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK
PLATEAU...PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE
VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SHEAR...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTIES STILL SEEM TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY
ASCERTAIN AND DELINEATE EVEN LOWER END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..KERR.. 03/23/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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