Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 290730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   DEAMPLIFICATION ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUR AS THE
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN
   CANADA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
   WHILE TRAILING PORTION STALLS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN
   PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES
   AND NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL EXIST. AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES...MODERATE MLCAPE WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP. IT APPEARS REMNANT EML PLUME COULD POTENTIALLY
   RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG CAP...BUT DEEPER FORCING WITH
   EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ALONG GREAT LAKES PORTION OF
   FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH WI...UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI.
   THIS FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
   FRONT DURING THE DAY. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A
   THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SRN PLAINS...
   
   AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG SWD EXTENT OF THE
   FRONT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF
   THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE
   MUCH WEAKER AND THERE IS ALSO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER CAP. A
   FEW MULTICELL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE CONCERNS SUGGEST MORE THAN 5%
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT
   OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
   DAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT REMNANT EML WILL HAVE ADVECTED
   THROUGH WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN A CAP. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MIGHT
   STILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VICINITY OF
   THE FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   GIVEN POTENTIALLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5%
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
   SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/29/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z