Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 060728
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN KS TO LM...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS/FOOTHILLS REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STG ANTICYCLONE
   CENTERED OVER SERN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH FROM
   NRN ROCKIES OFFSHORE SRN CA.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING -- OVER GREAT
   LAKES EARLY IN PERIOD -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
   09/12Z.  MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW APCHG CA COAST WILL HAVE DEAMPLIFIED
   TO WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN ONT BY ABOUT 08/18Z.  STG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER AK PANHANDLE SHOULD EVOLVE TO CLOSED LOW MOVING
   SLOWLY SSEWD OVER INTERIOR NW DAY-3.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING NRN-STREAM TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO REACH ERN LS...WI AND IA BY 09/00Z.  AT THAT TIME...WRN
   SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN KS...WITH
   COMBINED FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE-SIDE LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS AREA.  WARM
   FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN QUE SEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN KS...
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN FRONTAL
   BELT AT LEAST BETWEEN ERN WI AND STJ/MKC REGION...WITH CONDITIONAL
   THREAT NEWD OVER UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI.  DISCRETE AND MORE
   WIDELY SCATTERED BACKBUILDING ALSO MAY OCCUR ATOP SOMEWHAT
   DRIER/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SWWD TOWARD CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL KS. 
   MAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.  EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT AND STG
   DIABATIC HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TO ERODE CINH FAIRLY QUICKLY
   DURING AFTERNOON OVER WI/IA.  HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE...SUPPORTED
   BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND 70S F OVER CORN BELT...WILL SUPPORT
   MLCAPE IN 4000-5000 J/KG RANGE NERN KS TO WI...DIMINISHING TO
   1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL KS AND UPPER MI. 
   LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AS WELL
   AS SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY.  THREAT
   SHOULD BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED AND MRGL AFTER DARK...THOUGH A STG-SVR
   CLUSTER OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS REGION...
   AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SMALL BUT FAIRLY
   WELL-FOCUSED AREA...SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND JUST E OF FOOTHILLS AND
   CHEYENNE AND/OR PALMER RIDGES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER
   TERRAIN SHOULD REMOVE CINH.  STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   COMBINE WITH AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTM
   POTENTIAL...IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUBSTANTIAL ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW
   COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO BOTH LIFT AND VARIOUS MEASURES OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR.  AS SUCH...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
   BEING LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD
   OVER PORTIONS NERN CO...ERN WY...EXTREME SWRN SD AND NEB
   PANHANDLE...BEFORE WEAKENING IN LATE EVENING AS MLCINH STRENGTHENS.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
   AFTERNOON...IN REGIME OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND AT
   LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NWRN CONUS MID-UPPER CYCLONE.
   ENHANCED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND RELATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
   SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS
   AND OCNL HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IN
   LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   EXPECT RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL TSTM
   CLUSTERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL STG-SVR GUSTS...AS PLUME OF VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR SLOWLY SPREADS FURTHER INLAND TOWARD
   MID-SOUTH.  STG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND LIFT ALONG SEA
   BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE MAIN FOCI.
   
   ...NRN NY/VT...
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMALL CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF
   CONVECTION TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING...AS SRN/SERN EXTENSION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL OVER ONT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT
   BEST...PLUME OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE
   BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  ISOLATED
   DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE LACK OF
   APPRECIABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...I.E. 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE
   RISING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF PERIOD...AS WELL AS WEAK
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND RELATED LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/06/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z