Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 190724
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
   LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EWD EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH
   INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED
   TO SETTLE INTO SRN MN.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STALL
   TEMPORARILY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL
   EASE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL LOW SUCH THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
   BECOME RATHER STACKED.  NET RESULT WILL BE A BROAD ZONE OF
   MODERATE-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE OH VALLEY...JUXTAPOSED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.
   
   GIVEN THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IT APPEARS THE CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  AS A
   RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WIND
   SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX WHERE
   INTENSE HEAT WILL FORCE HIGH BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.  OF MORE
   CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS FROM JUST EAST OF THE SFC
   LOW OVER SRN MN...ESEWD ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI.  THIS ZONE OF
   INTEREST WILL BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. 
   OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION POSING A
   THREAT FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/19/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z