Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 090729
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY WITH A
   CONTINUATION OF THE PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL REACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.
   QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE SERN STATES
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF NRN TX OR SRN OK.
   
   ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...
   
   SLY FLOW EAST OF HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED CP
   AIR NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
   WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AXIS OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASE IN
   MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT...LEE TROUGH AS WELL
   AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE
   EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35-45 KT SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELL STORM MODES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AS THE
   LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY AREAS...
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVELY
   REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NRN TX OR OK EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND WRN TX.
   MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT...BUT STEEP LAPSE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS OK OR KS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
   ENHANCES LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED
   TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/09/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z