Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030652
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU.
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A WEAKENING
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT NEWD AS IT
   IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE. GENERALLY ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM
   CNTRL CA NWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EJECTION OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
   CONSISTENT IN THIS TROUGH FILLING ON WED AS THE LARGE-SCALE WRN
   CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG. MORE PROMINENT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
   REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS
   A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE POLEWARD RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF
   MOISTURE. GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION IN THE WRN GULF...THIS
   MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF.
   
   A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY DEVELOP
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON /DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF
   THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
   REMAIN WEAK GIVEN EXPECTED MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING
   ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z