Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 080732
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2011
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE
   OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE WEST. REMNANTS OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH NOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GULF WILL LIKELY
   DRIFT NWD. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH NAM BEING FASTER AND
   DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. MARINE
   BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AND COASTAL GA
   AND SC.
   
   ...NRN FL THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC...
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE
   ERN GULF ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. STRONG ELY LLJ WILL
   PERSIST WITHIN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN THE SFC LOW CENTER AND HIGH
   PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NERN STATES. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
   70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INLAND EAST OF THE WWD MIGRATING MARINE
   BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC.
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST WITHIN ZONE OF
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION
   POTENTIAL. A MODEST THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN FL THROUGH
   COASTAL SC AS CONVECTION MOVES WWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE ZONE OF
   STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE CONTINUING
   WWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
   TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/08/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z