Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 140729
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT
   UPPER FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT
   STREAM DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...LARGE-
   SCALE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
   THE NORTHWESTERN U.S...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM...
   ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES/THE NORTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE OR
   LESS CUT-OFF...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE...SOMEWHERE NEAR
   OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  
   
   A CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE EASTERN
   TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR COLD SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
   APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
   OVERRIDING THIS AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
   ALOFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
   NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. 
   SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL
   COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST.  BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
   NEGLIGIBLE...PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/14/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z