Jan 10, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 10 06:55:02 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120110 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120110 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120110 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120110 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 100651
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR/ERN LA INTO
   MS...AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   
   CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO AR
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
   BY 00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MS AND NEAR THE AL BORDER
   BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
   GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO SERN AR/NWRN MS BY
   00Z...TREKKING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.
   
   A LONG DURATION OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF
   MS AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN AL. BY 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
   SERN AR ACROSS SWRN MS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
   BE ONGOING ACROSS LA...SRN MS AND AL.
   
   ...LOWER VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL LA INTO THE
   GULF OF MEXICO...IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SWRN MS INTO SERN LA
   TUE MORNING...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF
   THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
   THREATS DURING THE MORNING.
   
   WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
   ALOFT...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF AT LEAST LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
   THE SHEAR. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THE DOMINANT MODE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS MAY
   CONTINUE TO YIELD A WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT OVER SERN LA AND
   CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE DAY.
   
   MEANWHILE...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS
   SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WRN/NWRN MS...FAR NERN LA...AND SERN AR.
   HERE...FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   WILL COMPENSATE FOR ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. SUPERCELLS
   ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO
   THREAT. NEWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY A DIFFUSE
   WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH SURFACE AIR WILL BE STABLE. SOME HAIL THREAT
   MAY REMAIN N OF THIS FRONT IN AN ELEVATED SENSE AS SHEAR ALLOWS
   CORES TO PERSIST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE DUE TO
   WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
   WILL BE HIGH.
   
   THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. AS
   SUCH...A THIRD AREA OF SEVERE MAY MATERIALIZE OVER CNTRL AND ERN
   AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS APPROACHING GA BY WED MORNING.
   HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A CLUSTER OF
   SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL/SRN AL AFTER 6Z. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
   STRONG...AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.
   
   ..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/10/2012
   
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